2005 Season Preview: Pitchers
Anyone who knows anything about baseball knows that the Cubs' greatest strength is their pitching, specifically their starting rotation. Thanks to an injury bug that only seemed to plague the Cubs' most important players, Kerry Wood and Mark Prior combined for only 14 wins last season. That's 4 less than Prior had in 2003 by himself. If they run into injury problems again like they did in 2004, this could be another disappointing season. If the rotation avoids the DL, there's a very good chance the Cubs will advance into postseason baseball. Knock on Wood.
P//Mark Prior
As far as I'm concerned, Mark Prior is the key to this Cubs team. Say what you want about the closer role, the leadoff spot, the bullpen, whatever. I think if Prior can repeat the success he had in that memorable 2003 season, the Cubs will not only win their division but could possibly be the team no one wants to face in the playoffs. It's probably unfair to expect him to post a 2.43 ERA every year, but anything under 3.00 should be well within reach. For my money, Prior is the Cubs best player and needs to prove that he is one of the best pitchers in the game.
Keys to Success
The Real Mark Prior didn't consistently show up last year until his final three starts of the season when he threw 24 1/3 innings giving up 2 earned runs and striking out 30. That's Mark Prior. He said he altered his offseason workout routine in an attempt to avoid future injury problems. If he stays healthy, he will succeed.
Projected Stats
GS W L ERA IP
30 19 7 2.65 207.2
Can Kerry Wood finally win 20 games?
P//Kerry Wood
Ahhhh, Woody. When he's on his game, he may be the most dominant pitcher in baseball (ask Atlanta). But when he's falling behind in the count and walking guys, he's very beatable. Everyone knows he's got the stuff to win 20 games, yet he's never won more than 14. Will this be the year that Wood finally shows the world what he's really capable of? Or will it be another season that finds him spending significant time on the DL?
Keys to Success
Still only 27, Wood in reality is still learning how to pitch. His raw talent makes batters wet themselves, but unless he figures out how to implement those skills, it doesn't mean much. Keeping him on the mound all year is a good start, and with pitching coach Larry Rothschild and the legendary Greg Maddux by his side, Wood needs to finally put together a Cy Young caliber season.
Projected Stats
GS W L ERA IP
29 17 11 3.14 197.1
P//Carlos Zambrano
"Z" was one of the few bright spots for the Cubs last year. The 23 year-old right hander from Venezuela recorded 16 wins and ended the season with a 2.75 ERA, fifth best in baseball. Though his immaturity surfaced a couple times, he often showed poise on the mound in moments of pressure. Some people have the guts to say that Zambrano actually has more talent than Wood and Prior. I will not comment either way, but NL hitters know they're in for a long day if they see big 38 take the mound.
Keys to Success
As long as the "Baby Bull" continues to mature and keep a cool head, there's no stopping him. When his ridiculous sinker is sinking, he's as tough as anyone in baseball. He's a legit Cy Young candidate already, finishing fifth in the 2004 voting. If Wood and Prior stay healthy, Z will have less pressure on his back. And that could make for a dominant season.
Projected Stats
GS W L ERA IP
30 18 9 2.55 206.1
P//Greg Maddux
It's amazing to think that if Maddux records 15 wins again this year, it will be his 18th consecutve season doing so. 18!! Though Maddux started out somewhat slowly and ended the season on a rough note, he won some big games for the Cubs. How much can be expected of him in '05? He'll be 39 in April and he's clearly not the Maddux of old. But in this rotation, he doesn't need to be. If Maddux throws another 200 innings and wins 15 games, I think the Cubs will be very happy to get that from a #4 starter.
Keys to Success
I feel weird trying to pinpoint 'keys to success' for a pitcher as storied and accomplished as Maddux. But I'll state the obvious. As long as he keeps movement on his pitches, he's still a very good pitcher. If his fastballs dont move, it's very possible they'll be launched 900 feet by a Pujols or a Rolen. Mix your velocity, make your pitches dance, and don't walk people. If he does that, 15 wins shouldn't be a problem.
Projected Stats
GS W L ERA IP
31 16 12 4.15 206.1
P//Glendon Rusch
The Cubs took a minor gamble last season in signing the left-handed Rusch, who had a less than impressive 1-12 record in 2003. But Rusch found some mojo and recorded 6 wins in 16 starts and compiled a very respectable 3.47 ERA. He appears to be the favorite to land the #5 spot in the starting rotation, and if he carries over the success he had in that role last season he could prove to be a huge asset to the Cubs staff.
Keys to Success
Does anyone know why the hell Rusch looked like Warren Spahn during parts of last year? This would be the key to success. If Rothschild found and corrected something in Rusch's mechanics last year it's very possible he could repeat his surprising success. But if he just flat out overachieved, we could be in for a rude awakening.
Projected Stats
GS W L ERA IP
28 11 10 4.35 175.2
Bullpen
Justifiably, this is a question mark for the Cubs. It appears that GM Jim Hendry is done making deals and feels comfortable with either Ryan Dempster or Joe Borowski in the closer's role. Personally, I'd rather see Dempster get the spot over JoBo. Even when Borowski was shutting guys down in 2003 I never fully trusted him and I'd feel better having him as just another bullpen arm. And as far as Dempster goes, I think people often forget that the best closers rarely take a conventional road to get there. Eric Gagne started out with the Dodgers as a very mediocre starter before becoming the most dominant closer in baseball. I'm not saying Dempster will become the next Gagne, but I think it's a little ignorant to say that he can't become a good closer.
Latroy Hawkins should feel back at home in the set-up role, assuming Dusty puts him there. As the closer by default, he blew several key save opportunities last season and threw temper tantrums like a toddler. Hopefully, a return to his natural spot in the pen will cut down on his embarassing behavior.
Mike Remlinger, Todd Wellemeyer, Jon Leicester, Mike Wuertz, and newcomers Chad Fox and Stephen Randolph will all be in the mix this year and could form a better than average pen if used correctly. Should be an interesting year for the bullpen.
Next post: Previewing the bench
P//Mark Prior
As far as I'm concerned, Mark Prior is the key to this Cubs team. Say what you want about the closer role, the leadoff spot, the bullpen, whatever. I think if Prior can repeat the success he had in that memorable 2003 season, the Cubs will not only win their division but could possibly be the team no one wants to face in the playoffs. It's probably unfair to expect him to post a 2.43 ERA every year, but anything under 3.00 should be well within reach. For my money, Prior is the Cubs best player and needs to prove that he is one of the best pitchers in the game.
Keys to Success
The Real Mark Prior didn't consistently show up last year until his final three starts of the season when he threw 24 1/3 innings giving up 2 earned runs and striking out 30. That's Mark Prior. He said he altered his offseason workout routine in an attempt to avoid future injury problems. If he stays healthy, he will succeed.
Projected Stats
GS W L ERA IP
30 19 7 2.65 207.2
Can Kerry Wood finally win 20 games?
P//Kerry Wood
Ahhhh, Woody. When he's on his game, he may be the most dominant pitcher in baseball (ask Atlanta). But when he's falling behind in the count and walking guys, he's very beatable. Everyone knows he's got the stuff to win 20 games, yet he's never won more than 14. Will this be the year that Wood finally shows the world what he's really capable of? Or will it be another season that finds him spending significant time on the DL?
Keys to Success
Still only 27, Wood in reality is still learning how to pitch. His raw talent makes batters wet themselves, but unless he figures out how to implement those skills, it doesn't mean much. Keeping him on the mound all year is a good start, and with pitching coach Larry Rothschild and the legendary Greg Maddux by his side, Wood needs to finally put together a Cy Young caliber season.
Projected Stats
GS W L ERA IP
29 17 11 3.14 197.1
P//Carlos Zambrano
"Z" was one of the few bright spots for the Cubs last year. The 23 year-old right hander from Venezuela recorded 16 wins and ended the season with a 2.75 ERA, fifth best in baseball. Though his immaturity surfaced a couple times, he often showed poise on the mound in moments of pressure. Some people have the guts to say that Zambrano actually has more talent than Wood and Prior. I will not comment either way, but NL hitters know they're in for a long day if they see big 38 take the mound.
Keys to Success
As long as the "Baby Bull" continues to mature and keep a cool head, there's no stopping him. When his ridiculous sinker is sinking, he's as tough as anyone in baseball. He's a legit Cy Young candidate already, finishing fifth in the 2004 voting. If Wood and Prior stay healthy, Z will have less pressure on his back. And that could make for a dominant season.
Projected Stats
GS W L ERA IP
30 18 9 2.55 206.1
P//Greg Maddux
It's amazing to think that if Maddux records 15 wins again this year, it will be his 18th consecutve season doing so. 18!! Though Maddux started out somewhat slowly and ended the season on a rough note, he won some big games for the Cubs. How much can be expected of him in '05? He'll be 39 in April and he's clearly not the Maddux of old. But in this rotation, he doesn't need to be. If Maddux throws another 200 innings and wins 15 games, I think the Cubs will be very happy to get that from a #4 starter.
Keys to Success
I feel weird trying to pinpoint 'keys to success' for a pitcher as storied and accomplished as Maddux. But I'll state the obvious. As long as he keeps movement on his pitches, he's still a very good pitcher. If his fastballs dont move, it's very possible they'll be launched 900 feet by a Pujols or a Rolen. Mix your velocity, make your pitches dance, and don't walk people. If he does that, 15 wins shouldn't be a problem.
Projected Stats
GS W L ERA IP
31 16 12 4.15 206.1
P//Glendon Rusch
The Cubs took a minor gamble last season in signing the left-handed Rusch, who had a less than impressive 1-12 record in 2003. But Rusch found some mojo and recorded 6 wins in 16 starts and compiled a very respectable 3.47 ERA. He appears to be the favorite to land the #5 spot in the starting rotation, and if he carries over the success he had in that role last season he could prove to be a huge asset to the Cubs staff.
Keys to Success
Does anyone know why the hell Rusch looked like Warren Spahn during parts of last year? This would be the key to success. If Rothschild found and corrected something in Rusch's mechanics last year it's very possible he could repeat his surprising success. But if he just flat out overachieved, we could be in for a rude awakening.
Projected Stats
GS W L ERA IP
28 11 10 4.35 175.2
Bullpen
Justifiably, this is a question mark for the Cubs. It appears that GM Jim Hendry is done making deals and feels comfortable with either Ryan Dempster or Joe Borowski in the closer's role. Personally, I'd rather see Dempster get the spot over JoBo. Even when Borowski was shutting guys down in 2003 I never fully trusted him and I'd feel better having him as just another bullpen arm. And as far as Dempster goes, I think people often forget that the best closers rarely take a conventional road to get there. Eric Gagne started out with the Dodgers as a very mediocre starter before becoming the most dominant closer in baseball. I'm not saying Dempster will become the next Gagne, but I think it's a little ignorant to say that he can't become a good closer.
Latroy Hawkins should feel back at home in the set-up role, assuming Dusty puts him there. As the closer by default, he blew several key save opportunities last season and threw temper tantrums like a toddler. Hopefully, a return to his natural spot in the pen will cut down on his embarassing behavior.
Mike Remlinger, Todd Wellemeyer, Jon Leicester, Mike Wuertz, and newcomers Chad Fox and Stephen Randolph will all be in the mix this year and could form a better than average pen if used correctly. Should be an interesting year for the bullpen.
Next post: Previewing the bench
posted by dbrown @ 11:48 PM
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