Hope

Please tell me this could come true.

(From Chicagosports.com)

Something big happens on Friday for the Cubs.

With Kerry Wood and Nomar Garciaparra rejoining the team at New York's Shea Stadium, they are positioned either to begin their kick to the playoffs or stagger toward the end of the Dusty Baker Era in Wrigleyville.

There's no doubt which is more likely.

Tied for fifth in the wild-card playoff race after Mark Prior got pounded Thursday in Philadelphia, the Cubs fell 5½ games behind Houston, which has a much better pitching staff. While general manager Jim Hendry's stated goal was to push his team toward October, he might have known what he was doing when he added only Matt Lawton at the trade deadline. He showed restraint in not sacrificing big parts of his future to improve a team entering its fifth month of mediocrity.

Consider the Cubs' record by month: 12-11 in April, 14-13 in May, 14-13 in June and 13-15 in July. The Cubs haven't been more than four games above .500 in a month since that 19-8 September in 2003. And they're suddenly going to hit the afterburners, just because they're adding Wood and Garciaparra, the latter of whom could have used more than eight games in his minor-league rehab?

It's not likely, is it?

That leaves us with Baker. He no longer needs to tell us his name is Dusty, not savior.

The Cubs aren't likely to fire Baker, not with a year left on the manager's contract—and not when Wood, Prior and Garciaparra have been sidelined for a combined 328 days over the last two seasons. Baker has many good reasons why his team isn't winning. But with the Cubs floundering under him, his 2006 status will be a hot-button issue until Hendry and his Tribune Co. bosses either extend him (which is unlikely) or let him take a deal elsewhere.

No matter how strongly Baker denied the Los Angeles Times' story that said he is eyeing a shot at the Dodgers' job, currently Jim Tracy's, you can't help but wonder. The same kind of whispers began in 2002 when he was angry with San Francisco Giants owner Peter Magowan.

In fact, I wrote that September that at least two of his close friends were telling associates he was headed to the Cubs. Baker and Hendry denied it, and where did he wind up after the Giants let the World Series slip away from them?

If the Dodgers or another team, say Oakland or Arizona (now operated by Baker's former agent, Jeff Moorad), asked the Cubs if they could talk to Baker in October or November, I bet they would let them, provided they were going to hire him. The only risk to the Cubs is if Baker interviewed with someone and didn't get the job, returning to Chicago as a lame duck.

While injuries and an unreliable bullpen have sunk the Cubs the last two years, you could see management deciding that maybe somebody else could get this team over the top. It's a decent time to consider replacing a strong manager, as there are at least three good candidates within the organization or nearby. In no particular order they are:

Grady Little, who got the Boston Red Sox to Game 7 of the 2003 American League Championship Series and currently is a roving catching instructor in the Cubs' organization.

Bob Brenly, who won a World Series with Arizona in 2001 and is spending this season doing great work as a color man on Cubs telecasts.

Joe Girardi, the Northwestern graduate and seven-year Cub who is serving as a bench coach/understudy to Yankees manager Joe Torre.

In Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Zambrano, Greg Maddux, Ryan Dempster and possibly Garciaparra (whose immediate future will be decided by his play down the stretch), there are playoff cornerstones in place. The key for 2006 lies in getting contributions from enough guys like Matt Murton, Rich Hill, Ricky Nolasco, Roberto Novoa, Ronny Cedeno and Corey Patterson or Felix Pie.

It's fair to say these aren't the kind of guys who have thrived under Baker.

Bakers critics fault him for his inflexibility in playing young position players (with Todd Hollandsworth Exhibit A); the failure of his two hitting coaches, Gene Clines and Gary Matthews, to tap into Patterson's talent; for the continuing injuries to Wood and Prior, whom he pushed extremely hard in 2003; and too many fundamental breakdowns, with Wednesday night's 4-3 loss to the Phillies providing a three-hour, two-minute indictment.

A coaching shuffle doesn't seem likely, given Baker's loyalty to so many of his coaches. That leaves the responsibility with Baker, who wouldn't want it any other way.

But remember this: A Baker team hasn't finished below .500 since 1996 and his teams have compiled a .554 winning percentage since '97. To put that into context, that means Baker's teams have won 90 games a year for nine seasons.

And this is a guy not good enough for the Cubs?

Thanks to the increased expectations that came with Baker and his predecessor, Don Baylor, this isn't the same Cubs organization as in Sammy Sosa's heyday. It certainly is not the same group of Cubs fans. The bar has been raised, and no one wants to live with mediocrity, including Baker.

Unless things turn around in a hurry, it's easy to see why he would want to take his chances elsewhere, especially if means a return to the West Coast.